It may just be me, but I am of the opinion that after increased periods of conflict the amount of attempts at dialogue from outside sources seems to increase while the dialogue between the two sides seems to decrease. This relates to a lecture I attended by Dr. John Freeman, a political scientist from the University of Minnesota. He received a NSF grant for this work on "Bayesian Time Series Models for the Analysis of International Conflict". In this he spoke on how there is a relation between the sentiments of both the Israel and Palestinian people. As the Israelis become more inclined towards peace, the Palestinians are not as excited about it and then vice versa. For all you math people think of it as cos(x) and -cos(x). He used surveys/polls of both Israelis and Palestinians and found a striking inverse relationship very similar to this mathematical model.
Considering the radicals in both camps are we destined to continue along this oscillating path or will one side prevail? Here is an article from the English version of Al Jazeera about the UK's willingness to talk to Hezbollah.
I am having problems loading and linking to the actual paper about the time-series but here is the citation. You can find it searching on Macalester Library website in the WorldCat search box.
Brandt, P. T., and J. R. Freeman. "Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis." POLITICAL ANALYSIS -ANN ARBOR THEN OXFORD-. 14. 1 (2006): 1-36.
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It's interesting to think of negotiations this way. Is it possible for both parties to arrive at a point when they are receptive to peace talks? As of yet, the moment when both sides engage in talks with conciliatory aims, if it every has come, has been squandered. This frustrating oscillation between receptivity to peace and resistance to dialogue hasn't yet yielded an arrangement where either Israel or the Palestinians can feel independent and secure. It's alarming but perhaps useful to see that Bayesian Markov switching multi-equations and the like work here. Can this modeling help those interested in negotiations find a point of common attitudes and receptiveness to peace that can facilitate constructive talks between Israel and the Palestinians?
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